Újház Debuts Construction Industry Trend Monitor

For decades, numerous data and statistical reports have been produced and collected concerning the construction industry, but there have been few attempts at their complex management and the formation of composite indicators. The novelty of the trend monitor, now available on a monthly basis, is that it is created from the evaluation of the building materials trade network's own data, as well as publicly available data sets – including aggregated results of the Central Statistical Office and the National Bank of Hungary, as well as the European Commission's Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs industry and household surveys.

"Thanks to our extensive commercial network, we have data on the sale and demand of building materials from the entire country, which creates a unique opportunity to understand the current situation of the high-rise construction sector, including the housing construction sector, and to contribute to the formulation of future forecasts affecting the industry. The Újház Construction Industry Trend Monitor was created with the goal of supplementing our network's research materials with up-to-date impulses from the market, so that the wider public, participants in the construction industry, and those building or renovating can get a more comprehensive picture of the processes, difficulties, the present and future of the Hungarian construction industry," said Csilla Rázsóné Szórády, CEO of Új Ház Zrt.

In the process of index formation, the company and Marketing Resolution Kft., which developed the methodology, created five independent sub-indexes from a total of 30 different indicators, which are intended to determine the business confidence level of the high-rise construction sector, the long-term financial expectations of the population, the economic environment defining housing construction (taking into account both the demand and supply sides), as well as the current and recent performance of housing construction.

The calculation of the main index is done by averaging the five sub-indexes. The indexes provide a comprehensive picture of the main factors influencing the operation of the housing construction market, the sectoral trends defining the past three years, and the expected development of the construction industry.

Examining the past three years, the Újház Construction Industry Trend Monitor Main Index reached its most recent peak in February 2022 (62 points), thanks to the combined positive effect of several key factors. During this period, home renovation support was still available, and the average cost indicator of housing loans was at a very favorable level, around or below five percent. Another important factor is that construction production was 43% higher compared to the same period of the previous year.

After a slight decline in the spring of 2022, there was a significant downturn, followed by a low point in April 2023 (39 points). The mild growth in the second half of 2023 was primarily due to an improvement in the financial situation of the population and a minor increase in demand, which, however, was not sufficient to dynamize the construction industry.

To approach the peak of February 2022 again, the housing construction sector would need an increase in consumer confidence, expansion of the new home market, renewal of state support for home renovation, and a sustained average housing loan cost indicator below 6%, the company behind the trend monitor notes.

The first Újház Construction Industry Trend Monitor report, looking back at the period 2021-2023, and the reports appearing in the last week of every month in the future will be available through the following link: https://ujhaz.hu/vallalati-menu/trendmonitor .