Poll, analysts agree on big Fidesz-KDNP election victory

Party Popularity

Heading into the weekend’s Parliamentary elections, a new Nézőpont poll plus some hedging from analysts indicates that the only question awaiting the Hungarian nation is not whether the ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition will repeat with an emphatic victory, but rather just how much of a majority Viktor Orbán’s party will enjoy through 2018.

According to Nézőpont’s final poll of registered and likely voters going into the election, Fidesz-KDNP currently holds a 47% share among the former against left-wing coalition Unity’s mere 19%. Much to the dismay of many (see below), Jobbik already boasts 15% backing; green-centered LMP still lies within the margin of error at 2%, while the remaining 14 parties on the national ballot have the support of a combined 1%. About 16% were undecided as to party preference.

In the overall picture and figuring for 62% voter turnout, the pollsters see Fidesz-KDNP with 47% of the vote; Unity with 28%; Jobbik with 19%; and green-centered LMP just barely reaching the minimum share to gain seats in Parliament, with the Nézőpont poll reckoning the party’s support will be 5%.

4Cast strategist: Fidesz-KDNP will get 2/3 majority
4Cast strategist Gábor Ambrus gave an extensive interview to Portfolio.hu yesterday in which he reckons that the ruling Fidesz-KDNP coalition looks to retain the two-thirds majority in Parliament after this weekend’s elections; further, Ambrus fears that far-right party Jobbik will increase its own percentage in the next edition of Parliament.

According to Ambrus, such a showing by Jobbik would damage Hungary’s international reputation and future opportunities for foreign direct investment than preservation of the status quo and Fidesz-KDNP’s “supermajority”: “A two-thirds majority will likely be perceived as slightly more negative than a simple majority, although this may not be the case if the supermajority is blocked due to an unexpectedly strong result by Jobbik.”

As for 4Cast, Ambrus says they’re working under the premise that “Based on the current poll results, even in what we consider a very optimistic scenario for the opposition, namely that LMP passes the 5% threshold, Fidesz is set for a landslide victory, most likely retaining its two-thirds majority … Another landslide victory is indeed likely to reinforce the party in the continuation of non-orthodox fiscal policies and the occasional conflicts these entail with the banking sector and markets.”

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