Elections to the European Parliament (EP) will be held in Hungary this Sunday, and polls suggest that the governing Fidesz party will once again gain the upper hand against a fragmented opposition, achieving more than half of the 21 seats at stake.
According to a plethora of May polls conducted by Politico, Publicus, Medián, Századvég, Nézőpont, Závecz Research, and Idea Institute, the list of the governing Fidesz-KDNP alliance is set to receive 50-55% of the vote, resulting in about 13-14 seats.
While Fidesz remains for the time being part of the center-right European Peopleʼs Party (EPP), the largest group in the EP, it was suspended from the bloc in March amid concerns over the rule of law in Hungary. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán later withdrew his support for EPP group leader Manfred Weber as the blocʼs candidate for president of the European Commission, leading to widespread speculation that Fidesz will later join a new far-right group being created by Italyʼs populist Minister of the Interior Matteo Salvini.
Right-wing opposition party Jobbik measures between 9.5% and 13% in various polls, most likely resulting in 2-3 seats. Jobbikʼs MEPs are currently unaligned in the EP.
The Socialist Partyʼs common list with Párbeszéd (MSZP-P) is set to receive 8-11% of the votes on Sunday, also resulting in 2-3 seats. The MSZP belongs to the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), while Párbeszéd MEPs are currently aligned with the Greens.
The Democratic Coalition (DK) is polling similarly to MSZP-P at the moment. DK is also a member of the S&D group.
With most polls indicating 4-6.5% support, the Momentum Movement - aligned with the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) - looks likely to garner just enough votes to clinch a single seat in the EP.
On the other hand, Politics Can be Different (LMP), belonging to the Greens, is likely to crash out of the EP, with its support in polls ranging from 2% to 5%, with most pollsters measuring the partyʼs support below the 5% threshold.
Both the Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party (MKKP), created as a joke to parody Hungarian politics, and the extreme-right nationalist Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk Mozgalom) are set to receive only 1-3% of the votes, polls indicate.