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Raiffeisen predicts 4.5% GDP growth for 2022

Analysis

Hungary's GDP growth is expected to reach 4.5% this year, Raiffeisen Bank analysts said on Wednesday at an online press briefing.

Raiffeisen analyst Zoltán Török said growth forecasts are still mainly determined by the coronavirus pandemic. It is uncertain if global supply chains fully recover, but there should be gradual improvement, which is key for Hungarian industrial output, he added.

Analyst Gergely Pálffy said the external environment in 2022 should be supportive. The eurozone could start the year with a weaker performance, but after Q1 growth may be higher, employment may expand, household savings may be significant, and consumption may stabilize at a high level, although high inflation may reduce these effects somewhat.

The Finance Ministry's official forecast for 2021-2025, released in December, puts this year's GDP growth at 5.9%.

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