Are you sure?

Industrial output growth confirmed at 7.8% in April

In April 2018, the volume of industrial production rose 7.8% year-on-year, a second estimate by the Central Statistical Office (KSH) says, confirming the earlier flash estimate. Based on working day-adjusted data, however, production rose only 2.9%.

The significant difference between the raw and adjusted figures is attributable to the fact there were two more working days in April 2018 than a year ago, the KSH notes.

In April 2018, industrial output – according to the seasonally and working day-adjusted index – was above the previous month’s level by 0.2%.  Output increased following a 2.4% y-o-y drop in March.

The volume of industrial exports grew 8.6% year-on-year in April. Within export sales in manufacturing, which rose 8% overall, the export of transport equipment (representing 36% of the total) rose by 7.6%; in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products (making up 14% of manufacturing exports), the volume increased by 4.6%.

Industrial domestic sales grew by 5.9%, within which domestic sales of manufacturing were 11.3% higher compared to the same month of the previous year.

Within industry, production went up by 8.1% in manufacturing – representing a decisive weight of 96% – while rising by 47% in mining and quarrying, representing only a small weight.

Output of the energy industry (electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply) fell by 6.1%, primarily as a result of milder weather compared with the previous year. (According to the Hungarian Meteorological Service, the April 2018 average temperature was 5.2C higher than the April 2017 average.)

Manufacturing output up across board

Production declined in only two of the thirteen subsections of manufacturing, to which the low base effect of the previous year also contributed.

Output of the automotive sector - a key driver of industry in the country, representing 29% of manufacturing output - increased year-on-year by 7.5%. The manufacture of parts and accessories for motor vehicles rose above average by 14.1%, while the manufacture of motor vehicles went up slightly, by 1.3%.

The manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products - accounting for 11% of manufacturing - grew by 3.6%.

Output of food products, beverages and tobacco - accounting for some 10% of manufacturing - rose by 6.7% compared to April 2017.

With a 3.7% rise in the number of employees, the labor productivity of industrial enterprises with five or more employees was 3.7% greater in April than in the same month of the previous year.

Industrial output rose in every region of Hungary, the most (by 12%) in Southern Transdanubia, and the least (by 4.2%) in Southern Great Plain.

Total new orders in the observed subsections of manufacturing grew by 8.3% compared to April 2017. The volume of new domestic orders rose by 4.6%, while new export orders went up by 8.9%. The total stock of orders was below the level of April 2017 by 7.1%.

In January–April 2018

In the first four months of 2018 compared to the corresponding period of 2017, industrial production increased by 3.8%.

The volume of export sales - representing 64% of all sales - went up by 1.9%, while that of domestic sales - accounting for 36% of all sales - rose by 5.9%.

Labor productivity of industrial enterprises with five or more employees practically stagnated in January–April, while there was a 3.7% increase in the number of employees.

Industrial output grew year-on-year in every region in the first four months of the year. The largest volume growth (8.5%) was measured in Southern Transdanubia, while other regions saw volume increases of between 1.2% and 7.9%.

The KSH will publish a first estimate of May industrial output data on July 6, with a second, more detailed estimate due July 12.