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Q3 growth warrants forecast upgrade, say London analysts

Hungaryʼs strong growth performance in the third quarter of this year suggests that full-year growth will be above expectations, London-based emerging markets economists at Morgan Stanley said on Monday, Hungarian news wire MTI reported.

In its new CEEMEA Economic Outlook report released in London, emerging markets analysts at Morgan Stanley said they had upgraded their GDP estimates again, and now see growth in Hungary at 4.6% this year, and 3.8% in 2019.

"Our first stab at 2020 sees growth at 3.2%," they were cited as saying by MTI.

This moderation would leave Hungary still as a comfortable outperformer compared to the euro area, and broadly in line with overall CEE, the analysts said.   

"This may not seem remarkable in light of recent performance. However, seasoned watchers will remember how Hungary had been branded as a serial growth underperformer in the pre- and post-crisis years. Since 2014, this has clearly not been the case. Much of this catching up owes to a recovery in domestic demand, mostly household consumption," concluded Morgan Stanley.