The institute puts next yearʼs GDP growth at 2.2%, while it predicts the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) to continue its recently relaunched easing cycle, which could lead to the base rate edging down to 1.50% from the current 1.95%. According to the institute’s predictions, industrial output will rise 6.5% this year and 5.0% next year, while the construction sector could expand by 2-3%. The unemployment rate is expected to fall from last year’s 7.7% to 7.2% in 2015 and 6.8% in 2016.
According to Kopint-Tárki CEO Éva Palócz the impact of restrictions on Sunday retail hours, especially on the catering industry, was a downside risk, and she added that Hungaryʼs recent brokerage scandals could also erode confidence and cause households to remain cautious.
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