If there was a frustration, though, it was that, even with two such excellent and knowledgable speakers as Róbert Ésik, a partner at EY, and Károly Radnai, managing partner at Andersen in Hungary, however much we think we know, nothing is cast in stone at this stage.

Donald Trump is President-elect (or, as one wag put it the other day, President-reelect). He won’t actually become the 47th President of the United States until Jan. 20, 2025. In an election that was notable for being detail-light, the Trump camp has certainly said a lot. But how much will become policy? From an international trade perspective, perhaps most worrisome is the threat to slap tariffs on anything imported to the United States. Hungary’s Prime Minister has repeatedly made clear that he thinks the EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles are a bad idea. It is unlikely that even he, an out-and-out supporter of Trump, would be happy to see America take such a protectionist turn. Our speakers agreed that the likely result would be increased inflationary pressures in the United States and globally.

But then again, perhaps Trump was simply following the advice contained within the pages of his book, “The Art of the Deal.” His is famously transactional. Maybe this is purely the opening round of negotiations, and those within the circle of friendship, as Orbán would seem to be to judge from the number of times he has received a public Trump name-check, have nothing to worry about. Just as the Chinese may reward Hungary for being one of just five countries to vote against the EU tariffs, perhaps Viktor and Donald have some kind of understanding. Then again, who knows? The President-elect cannot yet enact anything. Until he does, everything else is speculation, however well-informed it may be. To paraphrase myself at the CEO Boardroom Meeting, we will see what we will see; until then, we’re just guessing.

Other ground we covered included the Hungarian Presidency of the Council of the European Union. It’s almost impossible to attempt to judge this without getting political, and the color of your politics will significantly influence how you view it. But that said, our speakers thought it would probably be judged a success overall (or, as one of our speakers said, “At least, it wasn’t a failure”). The government’s laser-like focus on boosting European competitiveness, the top priority of the Hungarian presidency agenda, certainly won praise from some quarters, we were told. 

And what of the Hungarian economy? The Q3 GDP figures were worse than either of our guests had anticipated, but both thought GDP growth of around 3.5% next year was a realistic goal. One thing to keep an eye on will be an increase in government spending as we approach the Hungarian general election in the spring of 2026. The question will be where that money comes from, not least because the government insists that reducing the deficit remains a priority. It seems we will have much to watch out for in 2025.

Robin Marshall

Editor-in-chief

This article was first published in the Budapest Business Journal print issue of November 15, 2024.