The audience was assured early on that stopping by was a great idea. Data scientist Igor Tulchinsky informed them that Donald Trump would win the U.S. elections, based on the available data. The speaker added that AI’s prediction capability doesn’t cover “black swan” events. Since Trump has won before against the odds in 2016, a repeat victory would not be considered as such. Hence the prediction.
The growing power of artificial intelligence was acknowledged by many on stage time after time. Yet, it was also agreed that it won’t be able to replace personal relations. Nor can it pass on values. That’s where the ever-increasing role of teachers gains significance, as their ultimate mission will, more than ever, be to teach kids how to think.
AI needs immense amounts of energy, as showcased by Microsoft’s latest deal to reopen the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant to power the tech giant’s AI projects. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg regarding the soaring global energy appetite. Although many demand that we should stop burning fossil fuels right now (the United Kingdom has just ended its reliance on coal-fired power stations, becoming the first major economy to phase out coal as an energy source completely), it will take long to find new ways of energy generation regarding everything we do.
Take aviation. As Alejandro Rios Galvan, director of the Sustainable Bioenergy Research Consortium at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi, explained that planes need an energy-dense propulsion form. At the moment, only liquid hydrocarbon fuels can provide that.
“Let’s face it: if we don’t see a huge disruption in battery tech, large planes will still be running on liquid hydrocarbon fuels in 30 or 50 years,” he said. Alternatives are being sought, of course. Galvan talked about a project his university is working on to bring seawater inland for use at shrimp farms. The wastewater is then used to grow salicornia, a plant with high salinity tolerance. Its crushed seeds are turned into a bio-oil that can fuel vehicles.
“We are facing huge challenges for scaling here. On the other hand, it’s going to take the effort of all industries to decouple from fossil fuels completely,” Galvan said. MVM CEO Károly Mátrai drew attention to another challenge: long-term energy storage.
“As long as summer energy can’t be saved for wintertime, self-sufficiency remains risky,” he warned. He praised the fact that 20% of retail and business energy used in Hungary is sourced from solar, enough to rank this country second in the EU in that category. Despite solar’s apparent victory march, don’t count on dropping energy prices. All those small power plants make grid operation more complex, generating extra costs.
“So, while molecules might get cheaper, your bill is set to go up,” Mátrai said.
Our future will also be shaped by the evolution of the balance of power on the global political stage. Eurasia Center director Levente Horváth stressed that the rising influence of the BRICS alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China and the Republic of South Africa) will likely ensure the gradual loss of appeal of values represented by the United States. Foreign policy expert Yaro Patrice, in turn, noted that Western liberal democracy needs to be protected more than ever.
“China did help millions emerge from poverty, but the price society pays is that people have to give up freedom for relative prosperity. It might have given the impression that a highly centralized autocratic regime can cope with problems, in general, better than a democratic market economy, but the Great Recession and the current slowdown show it is not the case,” Patrice said.
He concluded that censorship and totalitarianism are what the world is afraid of, not the Chinese people.
Speakers were somewhat skeptical as to what extent the EU would have a say in the game for global supremacy. Geopolitical provocateur Thomas Fazi talked about “the lost decade” for the bloc, whose unaccountable bureaucratic structure is now causing a “revolt” in member states.
“The EU worked out for the political elite great, but they isolated themselves from any form of democratic pressure, with the masses having less and less of a voice,” he said. Historian David Engels added that in six years, there will still be a European Union, but it will be a fully transformed one, with more Muslim influence and a smaller periphery.
“I would compare it to the fall of the Roman Republic with civil unrest and the eventual emergence of a new form of common EU organization,” he commented. Engels called for the defense of this civilization, saying implementing a common foreign policy would be critical. MP Péter Ungár, the co-chair of the Hungarian Green Party (LMP), called the EU an “imperfect edifice that is still better than anything we have had before.”
“Human activity is so strong, it makes the future unforeseeable,” was the ultimate message of another session of renowned scientists. The Club of Rome, for instance, could predict in the 1960s whatever could be estimated in terms of math. But there wasn’t a word about the internet or cell phones, for instance.
“With eight billion people, our systems are not designed to solve the big problems; disasters will solve our problems,” was the somewhat dire insight of ethologist Vilmos Csányi. Collapse researcher Balázs Stumpf-Bíró painted an even grimmer picture.
“It’s like we are in a car with faulty brakes that’s zig-zagging down the mountain, and those up front are arguing about what music to play,” Stumpf-Bíró said. According to him, people don’t want change; they want to buy the illusion of change. Since he is convinced the world as we know it is bound to collapse, he would like to see at least some sort of preparation for a worst-case scenario.
“In the U.S., the Federal Emergency Management Agency has a plan even for the zombie apocalypse. [Yet] we don’t have one for the total breakdown that is set to happen,” he concluded.
This article was first published in the Budapest Business Journal print issue of October 4, 2024.
Producing journalism that is worthy of the name is a costly business. For over 30 years, the publishers, editors and reporters of the Budapest Business Journal have striven to bring you business news that works, information that you can trust, that is factual, accurate and presented without fear or favor.Newspaper organizations across the globe have struggled to find a business model that allows them to continue to excel, without compromising their ability to perform. Most recently, some have experimented with the idea of involving their most important stakeholders, their readers.
We would like to offer that same opportunity to our readers. We would like to invite you to help us deliver the quality business journalism you require. Hit our Support the BBJ button and you can choose the how much and how often you send us your contributions.
