The significant changes in party support that have been occurring since February have noticeably slowed down by the end of July, essentially reaching a standstill, according to a report by economx.
A survey conducted by the Idea Institute between July 24 and July 31, 2024, indicates that if parliamentary elections had been held in Hungary at the end of July, Fidesz-KDNP would have emerged victorious. However, the ruling party’s lead over the Tisza Party was only 7% among committed voters.
In June, in the aftermath of a successful EP election, Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party continued to gain some ground, but Idea Institute data suggests that this upward trend had stalled by the end of July. The party’s support did not increase further, marking the first time this has happened since its launch in April. Nevertheless, the willingness of Tisza supporters to vote has risen, enabling the party to slightly strengthen its position among committed voters despite the stagnation.
At the end of July, 28% of the adult population expressed support for Fidesz-KDNP, while the Tisza Party, the second strongest, trailed by 6 percentage points. This would translate to 41%of the votes for the ruling parties in a parliamentary election, with Tisza securing some 34% of the votes, up almost 5 pp from their result achieved in the EP elections.
Looking at the broader population, only one other party would have crossed the threshold to enter parliament—the Democratic Coalition (DK), which garnered the support of 5% of all eligible voters and 8% of committed voters. The Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) Movement, with 4% support, would fail to secure parliamentary representation. However, it’s noteworthy that Mi Hazánk does reach the 5% threshold among committed voters, the report highlights.
According to Idea Institute’s findings, some of the opposition parties which have been on the Hungarian political scene for years are struggling to gain popular support,
Joke party MKKP (3% among the adult population) and Momentum (2%) are two of these with a measurable base, while new parties such as Gábor Vona’s 2RK, and Péter Márki-Zay’s MMM have negligible support. MSZP, which last governed Hungary between 2002-2010, as well as Párbeszéd and LMP also fall into the latter category.
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