According to Nézőpont, some 32% of likely voters intend to cast a ballot for the Fidesz-KDNP coalition; this figure has held fairly steadily between 31% and 39% since October 2011, though far down from the 52% the party was getting in spring 2010.
Meanwhile, former ruling party MSzP has managed to maintain a slight lead over the far-right Jobbik party, at about 11% to 10%, but neither appears to have much chance of challenging the Fidesz/KDNP coalition. In fact, Gordon Bajnai’s Together 2014-Dialogue for Hungary (E14-PM) party, which has been seeking a coalition for the election with MSzP drew a dismal 8%, down from the 10% they’d recorded earlier in the year.
After the breakoff of now-E14 candidates from LMP, this party is looking a shaky bet to manage significant seats in parliament in 2014 at just 5% support. Former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány’s Democratic Coalition (DK) maintains its consistent 1% or so.
The only glimmer of hope for opposition parties? The nearly one-third (32%) of voters who currently remain undecided. Of course, Nézőpont points out that Fidesz-KDNP supporters have shown very strong actual polling numbers, with 72% of their rolls turning out to vote in recent elections versus a 60% average among other parties.
It may be early, but right now it appears Hungary’s 2014 parliamentary election is Fidesz’ to lose…
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