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While some surveys show the ruling Fidesz-KDNP alliance maintaining a clear lead, others put the opposition Tisza Party ahead by a significant margin. Smaller parties, meanwhile, are hovering around the 5% parliamentary threshold, making their performance potentially decisive in shaping the next National Assembly.
A February poll by Nézőpont Intézet conducted found the party competition essentially frozen at the start of the formal campaign period.
If elections were held “this Sunday,” Fidesz-KDNP would win 46% of the party-list vote, followed by the Tisza Párt at 40% and Mi Hazánk Mozgalom at 7%. The Demokratikus Koalíció would receive 4%, just below the parliamentary threshold.
According to Nézőpont, recent high-profile issues — including debates over Ukraine, industrial investments and pension proposals — have generated intense interest among politically engaged voters but have had minimal impact on party preferences. The institute also noted that Fidesz may still have 200,000–300,000 inactive sympathizers who could be mobilized by election day.
Research from the Idea Intézet shows a clear Tisza lead among committed voters.
In early February, 48% of decided voters who said they would turn out chose the Tisza Párt, while 38% backed Fidesz-KDNP, giving Tisza a 10-percentage-point advantage.
Compared with previous months, Idea said the latest data point not to a three-party but to a four-party parliament. The Demokratikus Koalíció reached 5% support in February, while Mi Hazánk Mozgalom also strengthened and its support crossed the 5% parliamentary threshold, according to the institute.
A January survey by Závecz Research similarly shows Tisza ahead among committed voters, with 49% compared with 39% for Fidesz — a 10-point gap.
Among the full population, Tisza stands at 36% and Fidesz at 31%. Mi Hazánk, DK and the Magyar Kétfarkú Kutya Párt each register 3%. Závecz estimates that around 450,000–500,000 active undecided voters — about 6% of the electorate — could still influence the outcome.
The poll highlights stark regional divides. Fidesz leads in villages, 40% to 36%, while the race is nearly even in small towns. In Budapest, Tisza holds a commanding 44% to 21% advantage, and in county seats it leads 39% to 26%.
A January survey by Magyar Társadalomkutató places Fidesz-KDNP in first place among active party voters with 51%, compared with 41% for Tisza, maintaining a double-digit lead.
Under that scenario, only Mi Hazánk would cross the 5% threshold besides the two largest parties, resulting in a three-party parliament. Both DK and the Two-Tailed Dog Party remain well below the entry threshold in that poll.
Taken together, the surveys illustrate a deeply divided electorate and significant methodological differences among pollsters. The four polling institutes are widely seen as operating in different segments of Hungary’s political and media landscape. Nézőpont Intézet and Magyar Társadalomkutató are generally regarded by analysts as closer to the governing side, while Závecz Research and Idea Intézet are more often cited by opposition-leaning outlets.
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