As a business publication, our focus naturally tends to be the state of the economy. Company health is, after all, fundamentally linked to economic prosperity. With the best will in the world, few would argue that Hungary has prospered in the past few years; perhaps the most telling statistic is that the economy has grown in only four of the past 13 quarters and contracted in eight. Seen through that lens, maybe we should be grateful for Q3’s 0.6% GDP growth. The markets had expected around 1%, but since Q2 only came in at 0.1%, that still marked the strongest growth since the second quarter of 2024. Again, that statistic speaks volumes.
As Dániel Molnár, head analyst at economic think-tank GFÜ, one of the expert analysts quoted in our Page 3 Macroscope report, tells us, based on the data for the first three quarters, an annual average economic growth of 0.4% is expected this year. Surely, next year will be better. The concern for Hungary is that its open economy relies on outside factors beyond its control to fuel growth. That means a better economic performance by the EU, and most especially by our most important trade partner, Germany. Another issue that would improve matters here would be an end to the war in Ukraine. Budapest could well host peace talks at some point, but the decision will be made by the warring parties, with pressure applied principally by the United States, and, to a lesser extent, the European Union.
Returning to the economy, ING, for example, currently forecasts 2026 GDP growth of 2.3%, but it also cautions that if the end of this year is weaker than expected, achieving even 2% growth next year could be difficult due to a weaker carry-over effect. In its most recent fall forecast, the European Commission said it also expects Hungary’s GDP growth to accelerate to 2.3%. Speaking to MPs on parliament’s economy committee at the end of November, Minister for National Economy Márton Nagy put the 2026 GDP figure at 2-3%. In other words, there is a growing consensus around what might be possible, based in part on fiscal stimulus in Hungary (such as subsidized Home Start loans for first-time property buyers, and the 14-month pension payment for retirees), feeding through into the economy. Germany has its own fiscal package in play, and the hope is that will help boost its internal economy but also trickle down to Hungary through export orders. It all sounds good on paper, but you might want to keep a finger or two crossed for 2026.
One last thought. For all that it is true that peace in Ukraine will help boost European economies, and especially those of its nearest neighbors, we should not wish for it on those grounds alone. We are rapidly approaching the Season of Goodwill; wouldn’t it be lovely to be able to celebrate that with a just and lasting peace in the land just next door?
Robin Marshall
Editor-in-chief
This article was first published in the Budapest Business Journal print issue of December 12, 2025.
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