The forecast is slightly under the government’s projection of 3.1%.
Századvég also lowered its GDP growth projection for 2012 to 2.7 from 3.6%.
Household consumption is expected to grow 2.1% in 2011 and 3.1% in 2012. Consumption will be supported by a 3.8% rise in gross wages, according to Századvég.
Consumer price inflation is set to fall to 4.4% in 2011 and 3.2% in 2012, close to the National Bank of Hungary’s 3% “price stability” target. The central bank is likely to keep the base rate on hold at 6.00% until the end of this year, but lower it to 5.50% in 2012, Századvég said.
Hungary could run a general government surplus as high as 2% of GDP in 2011 because of assets transferred from private pension funds, Századvég said.
In its previous forecast, Századvég saw the surplus reaching as high as 3.6%.
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