As a business journal, we are more interested in the state of the economy and how easy it is for commerce to flourish (the hint is in the name of the publication) than in politics, although it is always preferable to have someone competent in charge of setting economic and monetary policy.
Now, for the first time since 2008, Viktor Orbán and Fidesz have a credible opponent in Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party, if most polls are to be believed (the Fidesz-friendly Nézőpont Institute seems to be an outlier in regularly having Orbán’s party ahead). The further away we get from the 2022 election, the more remarkable it seems that anyone thought Péter Márki-Zay and his United for Hungary coalition stood a chance of winning. Even if they had, by some miracle, secured a majority, it seems unlikely such a big-tent grouping, taking in the Hungarian Socialist Party, the Democratic Coalition, Dialogue for Hungary, the Momentum Movement, LMP – Hungary’s Green Party, and Jobbik, could ever have agreed on a cabinet, much less a program of government.
This year seems to offer a viable alternative, and in a close election, the economy may matter all the more. There was mixed news on that front this week, with the publication of November’s industrial figures and the latest take on inflation. To take the latter first, December consumer price data and the full-year 2025 inflation figures showed a further slowdown in price pressures. December consumer prices were 3.3% higher than a year earlier, down from November and firmly within the central bank’s 2–4% target range for the second consecutive month.
That’s the good news, especially if voters can feel an easing of the pressure on their pocketbooks. But even so, on an annual average basis, inflation stood at 4.4% in 2025, compared with the government’s original prediction of 3.2%. Month-on-month, prices rose by a modest 0.1% in December.
Less welcome was the industrial output data. No one was expecting November to offer up a stellar performance, but neither were they expecting a near five-year low. According to the initial reading by the Central Statistical Office (KSH), industrial production declined by 5.4% year-on-year in November. It was also down 2% compared with October, a downside surprise, to say the least. Over the first 11 months of 2025, industrial production was 3.5% lower than in the same period a year earlier. November marked the weakest monthly reading of the year and the lowest level of output in adjusted terms since early 2021.
Reaching average economic growth of even 0.5% in 2025 will now require a robust December performance. In the words of one of the analysts we quote in our Macroscope report on Page 3, a weaker-than-expected finish would significantly worsen the outlook for 2026 growth, currently forecast at 2–2.5%, due to an unfavorable carryover effect.
The Budapest Business Journal’s traditional seasonal greeting is to wish for a peaceful and prosperous New Year. I think we can all say “Amen” to that. Whoever wins the April 12 election, we would settle for 2.5% growth right now!
Robin Marshall
Editor-in-chief
This article was first published in the Budapest Business Journal print issue of January 16, 2026.
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