It presents the Monetary Council of the National Bank of Hungary with a tricky pathfinding operation, finding an appropriate balance between promoting growth and keeping inflation in check. The current governor of the MNB, Mihály Varga, has a very similar pedigree to his immediate predecessor, György Matolcsy. Both were trusted lieutenants of Viktor Orbán: the PM once described Matolcsy as his “right hand,” while Varga served as a deputy prime minister. Both held the post of Minister for National Economy until Orbán handpicked them to become the governor. (Technically, the appointment is made by the president, on the recommendation of the prime minister and with the backing of the Parliamentary Economic Committee, but given the government’s two-thirds majority among MPs, there was never any jeopardy involved.) Where the two men differ is in their approach to the markets. Matolcsy was never afraid to dig into what he called his “unconventional toolbox,” which meant that his decisions could be quite surprising at times. Varga is a very different economic beast, and the markets have responded well to his more “softly, softly” approach.
The commentary from the Monetary Council that accompanied the latest decision to hold the rate at 6.5% notes that “prolonged trade and geopolitical tensions continue to pose a risk to the slightly improving global economic growth.” Elsewhere, it noted that global inflation was “moderating slowly.” However, it believes Hungarian domestic consumption will support growth in Hungary “over the entire forecast horizon.” The markets will wait and see, but as one commentator told us, given the current circumstances, “No one really believes that the Hungarian economy is able to grow at a faster rate than 3%.” You’ll find plenty more detail on this in our Macroscope column on Page 3, and our report from the Equilor year-opening press conference on Page 6.
*****
I hope you will forgive me a moment of personal reflection that is entirely unconnected with Budapest’s business world, except in one particular. I have just returned from the United Kingdom and the funeral of my brother, who died, aged 65, from a very aggressive form of melanoma. He had been fighting cancer for a while, and started a new round of immunotherapy treatment in March. It turned out he was immune to one of the components, and the other produced a severe attack of colitis. In late July, they found stage three cancer in his lungs. By the end of September, the news was bad. By the end of October, it was terminal. Since then, I had been juggling work deadlines, family schedules and flights back to England. Chris died in the early hours of Christmas Eve, with his wife and daughter at his bedside. I had not broadcast the news of his illness very far and wide, but members of our business community who did know have reached out. Their humanity and that support has been much appreciated. Thank you.
Robin Marshall
Editor-in-chief
This editorial was first published in the Budapest Business Journal print issue of January 30, 2026.
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