This marks a slight improvement over the previous month, with the seasonally adjusted volume of exports and imports rising by 2.4% and 4.7%, respectively. However, when compared to June 2023, both export and import volumes have contracted significantly.
Year-on-Year Decline in Trade Volumes
The volume of exports in June 2024 fell by 8.1% year-on-year, while imports decreased by 5.2%. This decline is reflected in the overall trade balance, which deteriorated by EUR 411 million compared to the same period last year. Despite the decrease, the trade surplus remains substantial, albeit EUR 28 million higher than initially estimated.
In value terms, exports in June amounted to EUR 12.3 billion, a 9.9% decrease from the previous year, while imports totaled EUR 11.1 billion, down by 7.8% in EUR terms.
Machinery and Equipment Drag on Trade
A closer look at sectoral performance reveals that the machinery and transport equipment sector significantly contributed to the overall decline in trade volumes. The export volume of machinery and transport equipment plummeted by 15%, while imports in this category fell by 8.4%. Particularly noteworthy is the sharp drop in the trade of electrical machinery, road vehicles, and telecommunications equipment. These categories alone accounted for a 9.0 percentage point reduction in export volume and a 3.9 percentage point reduction in import volume.
Conversely, the fuels and electric energy sector saw a remarkable increase, with export volumes surging by 44% and imports rising by 5.3%. The growth in this sector was primarily driven by a significant uptick in the trade of electrical energy, which partially offset the declines seen in other sectors.
Trade With EU and Non-EU Countries
Trade with the EU-27 Member States, which makes up the majority of Hungary’s external trade, also showed a year-on-year decrease. Exports to the EU fell by 10%, while imports decreased by 4%. Despite this, the trade balance with EU countries remained positive, with a surplus of EUR 1.3 bln, though this represents a decline of EUR 685 million compared to June 2023.
In contrast, Hungary’s trade with non-EU countries exhibited more resilience. While exports to these countries saw only a marginal decline of 0.2%, imports dropped by 8.3%, leading to an improved trade balance with a reduced deficit of EUR 143 mln.
Mixed Trade Performance in H1
For the first half of 2024, the overall value of Hungary’s exports reached EUR 73.3 billion (HUF 28.6 trillion), with imports totaling EUR 65.6 bln. Compared to the first half of 2023, export volumes decreased by 2.2%, while imports contracted by 6.4%. Despite the drop in trade volumes, the trade balance improved by EUR 3.7 bln, resulting in a surplus of EUR 7.8 bln for the period.
The HUF price level of external trade showed mixed trends. Export prices increased by 4.3% in June compared to a year earlier, while import prices rose by 3.5%, leading to a modest improvement in the terms of trade. However, the Hungarian forint (HUF) depreciated by 6.4% against the euro and by 7.2% against the US dollar, impacting the overall trade performance.
