The National Bank of Hungary’s easing cycle could bring the base rate to 3.25% by the end of this year from 4.75% at present, emerging market analysts at JP Morgan‘s office in London said in a fresh forecast. The analysts earlier said the easing cycle, started last August, would end this year at 4.00%. They now say a stronger forint, better-than-expected first-quarter GDP data and low inflation support more rate cuts. The analysts put the year-end forint-euro exchange rate at 290, firmer than the 305 rate projected earlier. They changed their GDP forecast for this year to 0.5% growth from a 0.2% contraction.
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