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The impact of the pass-through will be temporarily mitigated by price caps on motor fuels introduced in March, according to the Inflation Report.
Based on stock market futures prices, oil and gas prices may normalise by mid-2027, causing domestic inflation to return to the 3% central bank “price stability” target in a sustained manner in H2 2027, the central bank staff said in the report. The report puts average annual inflation at 3.8% in 2026 and 3.7% in 2027.
The report pointed to a moderate acceleration in GDP growth in Q4 2025 and forecast a continued pickup in 2026, albeit slowed by recent geopolitical events.
MNB puts GDP growth at 1.7% in 2026, driven by household consumption, and 3% in 2027.
While surging energy prices may slow growth on Hungary’s export markets, new industrial capacity resulting from investments in recent years will boost exports, the report noted.
MNB forecasts a modest 0.7%-of-GDP current account deficit for 2026, as energy prices weigh, but augurs a 0.5% surplus in 2027.
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