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Győző Eppich, director of OTP’s analysis center, said Friday that exports could contribute to growth this year after two years of decline. Investment continues to weigh on economic performance, primarily because public investment has been weaker than expected, although corporate investment is recovering.
Public investment could turn around next year as EU funding becomes available, while new production capacity could give exports an additional boost.
Consumption growth, however, is expected to slow in 2027 as wage growth and lending activity moderate.
Eppich said inflation had been lower than expected in recent months, mainly because of the forint’s significant appreciation and favorable food price developments.
OTP expects inflation to average 1.7% this year before rising to 2.6% in 2027. Persistently high energy prices, drought and fertilizer shortages pose upside risks to that forecast.
The forint remained stable at around HUF 360 to the euro over the summer, Eppich said, adding that OTP does not consider a significant depreciation likely.
According to the bank’s analysis, markets currently expect no further interest rate cuts from the National Bank of Hungary this year, given persistently high energy prices and rising bond yields in developed markets.
Further monetary easing this year could be considered only if the risk premium on Hungarian assets declines further, OTP said.
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