Russian oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia ceased on Jan. 27, following what Ukraine said was a Russian drone strike on infrastructure at the Brody hub in the west of the country, forcing Hungary to release strategic reserves and pivot to Croatia’s Adria pipeline as its primary alternative supply route.
Both Budapest and Bratislava have formally complained to the European Commission that Croatia’s rates are three times the European average, and Hungary remains unconvinced by the Ukrainian version of events.
An EC fact-finding mission entered Ukraine on March 19 to formally assess the pipeline damage. By April 1, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Taras Kachka had cited the security situation as the reason the mission had not reached the pipeline, the first time Ukrainian officials had publicly acknowledged that EU experts had not been granted access to the site.
Hungary moved to respond shortly thereafter. On March 25, Orbán announced that Hungary would gradually halt gas exports to Ukraine and keep the remaining gas for itself.
“As long as Ukraine does not supply oil, it will not receive gas from Hungary,” he stated in a Facebook video following a cabinet meeting. According to Ukrainian energy consultancy Expro, Ukraine imports approximately 45% of its gas needs through Hungary. At the European Council in late March, Orbán vetoed a EUR 90 billion EU loan to Ukraine and the 20th sanctions package against Russia, explicitly linking both to the unresolved pipeline dispute.
Meanwhile, U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran in late February triggered the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, particularly for Western tankers, disrupting approximately 20% of global seaborne oil supply.
The European Commission estimates the closure has added an extra EUR 13 billion to the bloc’s fossil fuel import bill, with EU benchmark gas prices rising approximately 70% and oil approximately 50% since the conflict began, and Brent crude reaching $126 per barrel. The International Energy Agency coordinated the release of 400 million barrels from strategic reserves on March 11 in an effort to stabilize markets, though analysts said it proved insufficient to lower prices.
Hungary found its above-average rates through Croatia’s Adria pipeple climbing further as global tanker availability tightened and prices rose. The government then introduced temporary fuel price caps and modestly reduced excise taxes in response. Hungary’s dependence on imported energy, combined with the forint’s sensitivity to risk-off periods in global markets, means elevated prices feed through into domestic inflation and industrial costs more directly than in many Western European economies.
Serbian army and police discovered two backpacks containing approximately four kilograms of plastic explosives, along with detonator caps, a detonating cord, and assembly tools, near the village of Velebit in northern Serbia, on April 5. The site was just a few hundred meters from the Balkan Stream pipeline, the extension of TurkStream that carries Russian gas through Serbia to Hungary.
The Higher Public Prosecutor’s Office in Subotica said the case had been classified as illegal weapons and explosives trafficking linked to suspected sabotage. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić informed Orbán of the find, prompting Orbán to convene an emergency meeting of the Defense Council.
The following day, Orbán traveled to the Kiskundorozsma gas supply station on the Hungarian-Serbian border to inspect protection measures in person.
“We have strengthened military control and protection of the Hungarian section of the TurkStream gas pipeline,” he stated. Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó confirmed that Hungary, Russia, Turkey and Serbia had agreed to coordinate protection of the TurkStream system and drew a comparison with the 2022 Nord Stream pipeline attack, which Budapest has attributed to Ukraine.
Ukraine rejected any such connection. Its Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi stated, “Ukraine has nothing to do with this,” and described the incident as “most probably a Russian false-flag operation as part of Moscow’s heavy interference in the Hungarian elections.” The Kremlin, through spokesman Dmitry Peskov, said there was “no reliable evidence” yet as to responsibility.
In a twist, Serbia’s own military intelligence further complicated attribution. Đuro Jovanić, director of the VBA, Serbia’s Military Security Agency, stated that it is “not true that Ukrainians tried to organize this sabotage,” and added that “based on the markings on the explosives, it is unmistakably clear that the manufacturer is from the United States.”
Jovanić also disclosed that the VBA had spent months trying to warn the political leadership that an attack on gas infrastructure was possible, only to meet what he characterized as “skepticism, disapproval, disagreement.”
Opposition Tisza Party leader Péter Magyar said that several people had publicly indicated that something would “accidentally” happen near the Serbian pipeline around Easter, a week before the elections, and called the incident a staged provocation. Orbán, speaking at the border, addressed the charge directly.
“This event does not affect the elections,” he said. “It affects Hungary’s energy security. Let us not mix the campaign with governing the state.”
No suspect has yet been identified. The Druzhba pipeline remains unrepaired, with an EU-backed repair mission still awaiting access to the site. With Brent crude trading above USD 100 per barrel and the TurkStream pipeline now under military guard, Hungary enters election week with no Russian oil flowing through Druzhba, elevated prices on both oil and gas, and its primary gas supply route under active security deployment.
This article was first published in the Budapest Business Journal print issue of April 10, 2026.
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