According to an analysis by Eötvös Loránd University’s Department of Meteorology, there is a 73% probability that human-driven greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for the dramatic decline in average snow depth observed in recent decades.

Hungary’s mountainous regions typically accumulated 12-14 cm of snow between November and January up to the mid-20th century. Today, the long-term average maximum has shifted toward February, and the accumulated snowfall is roughly 4 cm.

Snow cover acts as a natural insulating layer, shielding plants and soil from extreme cold, reducing soil temperature swings and allowing meltwater to seep gradually into the ground in spring. This slow release provides vital moisture at the start of the vegetation period. As consistent snow cover becomes increasingly rare, soils are more exposed to freezing, and initial spring moisture levels tend to be lower.

The absence of snow also affects soil microorganisms. Under snow, soil life operates in relatively stable temperature and moisture conditions. Without it, young fall crops such as wheat, barley and rapeseed are more vulnerable to wind-driven drying and frost cracking, and damage to leaf and root tissues.

Researchers also warn that reduced snow cover intensifies soil freeze-thaw cycles, disrupting nitrogen dynamics and boosting nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Studies indicate that snow-free areas release nearly twice as much N2O as plots protected by natural snow cover.

This matters beyond farm productivity, and while nitrous oxide is best known to most of us as laughing gas, this is no laughing matter. N2O is one of the most powerful greenhouse gases, meaning snow loss also accelerates global warming. Agricultural soils account for about 60% of human-related N2O emissions worldwide.

Negative Feedback Loop

More frequent freeze-thaw cycles can damage newly emerged plants, weaken soil structure and increase inorganic nitrogen levels. These changes amplify environmental pressure and climate impacts, creating a feedback loop that further challenges sustainable farming.

Winter nitrogen losses can be reduced through two main approaches: conservative nitrogen management, aimed at limiting excess reactive nitrogen accumulation in soils; and winter cover crops, which help retain nitrogen and reduce runoff, as well as maintain plant residues that trap and preserve snow, slowing its loss.

Strategies that reduce surplus soil nitrogen can curb emissions not only in winter but throughout the year, contributing to lower overall environmental stress, OTP Agrár notes.

Recent years have also seen mounting pressure on Hungary’s water balance. Data from HungaroMet shows that repeated spring droughts have increasingly followed dry winters and rapid snowmelt, when water runs off before it can infiltrate the soil, a trend compounded by increasingly arid summers.

After a dry fall in 2025, many fields had become dusty, leaving crops underdeveloped and reliant on January’s snow for frost protection. By early December, water deficits in the top meter of soil exceeded 100 mm across large parts of the Great Plain and Transdanubia. While conditions had improved by late January, shortages remained critical in the lowlands.

Compacted winter snow is typically insufficient on its own to erase deficits, but it is crucial for gradual recharge because slow melt allows water to seep evenly into the ground with minimal evaporation, OTP Agrár says.

This article was first published in the Budapest Business Journal print issue of February 13, 2026.