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According to the second-quarter Housing Market Outlook from the MBH Analysis Center, nationwide home prices are set to rise by 8%-13% this year, while the number of transactions is forecast at 118,000-125,000. New housing loan disbursements could exceed HUF 2.7 trillion.
The broader economic environment remains supportive for the housing market. Inflation stood at just 1.2% in July, while the MBH Analysis Center expects average inflation of 2.2% for 2026 and 3.1% in 2027.
Real wages are continuing to rise, with gross wage growth expected to approach 9% this year, while the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) cut its base rate by another 25 basis points in July to 5.75%.
“The fundamental processes in the housing market remain favorable: rising real wages, moderate inflation and a declining interest rate environment are all supporting willingness to buy homes. At the same time, following last year’s exceptionally strong demand, the market could move onto a significantly more balanced and sustainable growth path,” said Flóra Horti, senior sector analyst at the MBH Analysis Center.
A turnaround is already visible on the supply side. A total of 6,278 new homes were completed in Hungary in the first half of 2026, up 22% year-over-year, while 16,588 housing construction permits were issued, 30% more than a year earlier.
Analysts expect around 15,000 new homes to be completed in 2026, followed by as many as 20,000 in 2027.
Development activity has strengthened particularly in Budapest. At the end of the first quarter, projects comprising around 22,000 homes were either under construction or on sale, representing a 46% increase from a year earlier. The supply of new housing has consequently reached its highest level in a decade.
Demand, however, is showing a more subdued picture. Around 147,000 residential property transactions were completed in 2025, while 32,456 sales were recorded in the first half of 2026, down 10% from the same period a year earlier.
The MBH Analysis Center expects 118,000-125,000 transactions for the full year.
Price growth is also slowing. According to the MNB housing price index, annual nominal home price growth eased from 17.8% to 12.3% by the second quarter of 2026, while prices declined by 1.1% quarter-over-quarter.
“We continue to expect home prices to rise, but we no longer expect a repeat of last year’s 23.5% growth rate. Nationwide, we forecast price increases of 8%-13%, while significant regional differences are likely to remain: we expect more moderate growth in Budapest and its agglomeration, and stronger price increases in several rural regions,” Horti said.
Financing remains one of the strongest drivers of the market. New housing loan contracts worth HUF 1.578 tln were signed in the first six months of the year, representing a 94.8% increase year-over-year.
Analysts expect the volume of new housing loan contracts to exceed HUF 2.7 tln in 2026, while the outstanding stock of housing loans could increase by 25%-28%.
At the same time, growth in the rental market is moderating. According to the KSH-Ingatlan.com rent index, rents increased by 5% nationwide and 5.5% in Budapest in July compared with a year earlier.
The median monthly rent in the capital reached HUF 260,000, while Debrecen remained the most expensive market among Hungary’s major cities outside Budapest.
Overall, the MBH Analysis Center expects 2026 to be a year of stabilization for the housing market. Stronger lending and construction activity are set to continue, while demand and price growth could move onto a more sustainable trajectory, supporting more balanced market conditions over the longer term.
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