The change in outlook reflects “increasing risks to Hungary’s fiscal and external stability over the next two years from rising trade protectionism, weakening global demand, narrowing capital inflows, and elevated interest spending amid pre-election budgetary loosening,” the rating agency says. S&P forecasts GDP growth of 1.5% this year, fueled by private consumption.
Inflationary pressures persist, and although the government has introduced measures such as imposing restrictions on food product profit margins and capping bank fees, these will only somewhat contain inflation. However, the impact “will likely be only temporary,” S&P noted.
The ministry did share the rating agency’s findings, albeit partially, stating that the assessment is temporary and a positive turnaround is expected in the second half of the year.
The Hays Hungary Salary Guide 2025 outlook does not support that optimism. The guide is based on feedback from more than 3,000 respondents, 62% of whom are employees and 38% employers or managers. Both groups were asked about their perception of macroeconomic changes and their impact on the labor market over the next two to five years.
The results of the survey show “a disappointing proportion” of 59% of employees who are “pessimistic” or “completely pessimistic,” compared to only 30% in the previous edition. Meanwhile, those who are “optimistic” or “completely optimistic” are reported at just 11%, down from 34% previously.
The guide notes that the situation is “not much better” for employers. The optimistic camp is somewhat larger among employers (20% compared to 11% of employees), but a majority of 55% remain “pessimistic” or “completely pessimistic.”
The situation in the labor market has not changed significantly. Finding qualified candidates remains difficult, and although many companies have exhausted much of their local talent pools, relocating, training, and retraining workers remains a slow and costly process. Rising costs and increasing salary expectations among candidates cannot be sustained indefinitely, the Hays Hungary Salary Guide concludes.
Indeed, a survey conducted by the job board profession.hu shows that 12% of Hungarian employees are actively applying for jobs; a further 34% are not yet initiating a job switch but would be open to it if an offer arose. Collectively, this means 46%, nearly every second Hungarian employee aged 18 to 65 in Q1 2025.
The main drivers for job seekers are salary and benefits, followed by workplace location, schedule and working hours, and general working conditions. However, the current market is not favorable to change. The time from starting a job search to completing a transition has increased to five-to-six months, up from three-to-four months a year earlier.
“The reason for the prolonged period of transition is that recruitment has slowed while employees remain active, meaning that competition for vacancies has become increasingly intense,” explained Blanka Dencső, research expert at profession.hu.
Another survey conducted by labor force placement firm Trenkwalder Group indicates even higher dissatisfaction with current salaries. The company surveyed 500 employees in the private sector and found that 56% are unhappy with their earnings. This trend is worsening year on year: in 2023, 43% expressed dissatisfaction, rising to 50% in 2024, and now a further six percentage points higher.
Moreover, 66% of respondents plan to leave their current jobs within a year, though their expectations do not appear exaggerated. More than half (53%) would accept a salary increase of 20%, while 29% would expect a 20–30% rise. However, the outlook for better job opportunities is bleak, considering the projected low GDP growth this year. Employees appear aware of this, with 62% of respondents stating that it is more difficult to find a job suited to their qualifications this year than last.
“There are not many signs suggesting that salary competition will strengthen significantly: the majority of companies are not in a position to finance higher wages. As such, current discontent among employees regarding salaries will likely persist until the end of the year,” says József Nógrádi, director for strategic relations at Trenkwalder.
Other forecasts do not paint a much brighter picture. Labor placement company Manpower expects 33% of companies to hire in Q2 and 25% to carry out layoffs, based on feedback from 547 Hungarian employers.
The most active hiring is anticipated in the sectors of healthcare and life sciences (net forecast +27%), finance and real estate (+23%), consumer goods and services (+20%), raw materials and manufacturing (+17%), and information technology (+16%). Average growth is expected in logistics and automotive industries (+6%). However, significant headcount reductions are expected in the energy and utilities (-37%) and communication services (-34%) sectors.
According to the latest Eurostat data, Hungary has the second-lowest minimum wage in the European Union at EUR 706.94 per month, ahead of only Bulgaria at EUR 550.67.
While Hungary’s minimum wage rose by 9% this year, the increase in euro terms was only 4.7%. In comparison, Bulgaria raised its minimum wage by 15.4% in 2024. Hungary has now reached the minimum wage level that the other three Visegrád Group countries (the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia) had already attained in 2023, surpassing EUR 700.
Since 2023, Romania has increased its minimum wage by 34.3%, Bulgaria by 38%, and Hungary by 22.1%. In Poland, the minimum wage rose by 46.3% over two years, from EUR 745 in 2023 to EUR 1,100 in 2025.
This article was first published in the Budapest Business Journal print issue of April 22, 2025.
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