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According to recently released data, the number of employed people aged 15-74 stood at 4.637 million in November, the lowest level since May 2021. Employment declined by 37,000 from October and was down by 42,000 compared with a year earlier.
Three-month data also show a weakening trend. In the September–November period, average employment among the 15-74 age group amounted to 4.456 million, a level last seen in early 2022.
Despite the drop in employment, the number of unemployed people fell by nearly 4,000 in November. As a result, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%, in line with MBH Bank’s expectations. The three-month moving average eased to 4.4% from 4.6%.
MBH Bank analysts said the labor market has shown limited movement over the past three months, but November marked the largest monthly decline in employment in 2025. Adding to concerns, the number of economically active people, or the potential labor force, fell by more than 40,000.
The sharp drop in the activity rate in November also diverged from typical seasonal patterns and appeared earlier than usual, the analysts said. If the trend persists, it could signal a marked deterioration in labor market conditions.
While there are no signs yet of large-scale layoffs, inactivity has increased. The population aged 15-74 continued to decline in October, and ongoing demographic trends, including population decline and aging, could pose longer-term challenges for the labor market.
MBH Bank expects the average unemployment rate to come in at 4.4% in 2025, easing to 4.2% in 2026 as economic performance is projected to improve. Given the typically slow response of the labor market, the impact is likely to be gradual, with the unemployment rate expected to decline further to an average of 3.8% by 2027, the analysts said.
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