The emerging countries still have the impetus they gained through a persistent growth of their economies, writes the analysis by the London-based section of leading financial services firm JP Morgan, which was posted on Thursday. As a whole, the region will produce an economic growth of over 5% this year even if the US has to face recession, which, according to JP Morgan, has a 45% chance. Though China’s economy is still of a crucial significance, JP Morgan expects that the possible recession would make the growth in China slow down only to 9% – 9.5% in 2008 from 11.4% last year. For Hungary the company forecasts a 1.5% GDP-growth with the US facing recession, as against the otherwise expected 2.3%. The figures with or without recession for Poland are 5.0% vs. 5.3%, for the Czech Republic 5.0% vs. 5.5% and for Slovakia 6.5% vs. 7.0%. JP Morgan expects Poland to join the Euro zone in 2012, the Czech Republic and Hungary in 2013. It was the first time that any of the London-based analysts has mentioned 2013 as the possible date of Euro adoption in Hungary. The current London-consensus is 2014. (Gazdasági Rádió)
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