That same oil crisis also underlined an unpalatable truth for politicians: Their ability to pull levers and influence market developments was fast disappearing in an ever more globalized world. The 1970s increasingly underlined how far the British economy had fallen, drained by the combined effects of two world wars earlier that century and the gradual break-up of its empire. Even so, the U.K. market was still a relatively large one, if far diminished from its turn-of-the-century pomp. Imagine facing those same stormy waves if your economy were markedly smaller and much more open. Imagine you were Hungary.

The past five years have been described as a perma-crisis (and you could plausibly extend that back even further), but COVID, the global supply chain crisis, the energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the wave of inflation it triggered were all beyond Hungary’s control. While there is a strong argument to be made that Fidesz played a poor hand badly, resulting in the highest inflation in the EU, the outside pressures were just that; the quality of the cards it was dealt was beyond its control.

Péter Magyar’s cabinet continues to enjoy something of a honeymoon, not least benefitting from the hard work leading players put in even before being sworn into office to secure desperately needed EU funding. But the almost tangible positivity that has emanated from much of the Hungarian public seems also to have been picked up by the markets, helped by pro-euro noises from the government, the ratings agencies’ willingness to hold fire on potential downgrades, and the strength of the forint. That can be something of a double-edged sword, given that a strong forint is bad news for exporters. The European market hasn’t been overly dependent on Hungarian exports in the past three years, however, and a strong forint is good news for importers and food prices, and therefore inflation.

Things will probably deteriorate somewhat across the year. The full impact of all those trapped oil tankers and cargo ships in the Straight of Hormuz will likely be delayed; even if the tentative agreement is signed (how typical of President Trump to have what is effectively a Memorandum of Understanding rather than a peace treaty), there will be knock-on effects until the backlog has cleared out, a feat that is likely to take months, not days, even if there is no resumption of trouble. For now, however, Hungary’s inflation story has taken a welcome if surprisingly favorable turn. With headline and core inflation undershooting expectations and price pressures broadly contained, the National Bank of Hungary appears to have gained some valuable headroom to allow it to lower the interest rate at its meeting this month. Fingers crossed.

Robin Marshall

Editor-in-chief

This editorial was first published in the Budapest Business Journal print issue of June 19, 2026.