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.The EBRD left its growth forecast for 2026 unchanged from its previous report published in September.
The EBRD noted that industrial activity in 2025 remained subdued while household consumption expanded on the back of rising real wages and government income support measures. Fixed investment is estimated to have contracted sharply, weighed down by elevated financing costs, policy uncertainty and the continued freeze on EU recovery funds.
This year the EBRD expects a pre-election fiscal package will support household spending but add to fiscal pressures.
Investment is expected to rebound gradually as external demand improves and new automotive and battery manufacturing capacity comes online including a EUR 7.3 bln battery gigafactory near Debrecen, which is set to begin production in early 2026. Risks are tilted to the downside, linked to external demand weakness and prolonged uncertainty over EU funding.
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