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According to the investment firm’s latest forecast, Hungary’s unfavorable economic growth structure will persist this year.
The company, which has links to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s son-in-law, István Tiborcz, and his BDPST Group through Gránit Bank, believes that household consumption will remain the primary driver of the Hungarian economy, while meaningful investment stimulus can only be expected if access to European Union funds is restored.
At the same time, Equilor highlights that artificial intelligence will be the most important economic driver this year.
Bálint Szécsenyi, CEO of Equilor Investment Zrt., which has been majority-owned by Gránit Bank since August 2022, said that last year was a strong one for the Budapest Stock Exchange. Equilor itself also played a role in this performance, among other things, through MBH Bank’s stock market listing.
The firm expects the international securities markets to deliver solid results again this year, with returns potentially reaching 10%, and anticipates a similarly positive performance from the Hungarian stock market.
Equilor emphasizes that in the United States, industries related to artificial intelligence could serve as the main engines of growth, while in Hungary, newly established manufacturing capacities may provide supportive momentum.
Following modest growth last year, the Hungarian economy could expand by 2% in 2026, inflation may decline to 3.5%, the National Bank of Hungary (MNB) could reduce the base rate to 5.75%, and the euro may trade at around HUF 390.
The global economy is also expected to grow only moderately in 2026, according to Equilor’s annual outlook. The negative effects of recently introduced tariffs and persistent geopolitical tensions are being offset by artificial intelligence investments in the United States and Asia, fiscal policies in developed economies, and easing global financial conditions.
So far, U.S. tariffs have proven ineffective in reducing global trade imbalances, and China’s growing trade surplus may trigger further protectionist measures from countries most exposed in the manufacturing sector.
In the United States, strong domestic consumption is again expected to be the main driver of economic expansion this year; in the eurozone, temporary growth momentum may come from German fiscal stimulus, according to Equilor.
The two major Far Eastern economies, China and Japan, continue to struggle with persistently weak domestic demand. In China, this weakness is offset by exports reaching historical highs, while in Japan, which is facing a deteriorating external environment, targeted fiscal stimulus may be required.
Péter Aradványi, head of research at Equilor, said that globally influential central banks have already reached or are close to neutral interest rate levels, allowing easing cycles to conclude as inflation risks moderate.
In the eurozone, he expects policy rates to be held steady in 2026, meaning that internationally, the three rate cuts expected from the Federal Reserve and the two rate hikes priced in for the Bank of Japan could shape overall monetary conditions.
Aradvanyi added that concerns over the sustainability of public debt in developed countries may keep long-term bond yields elevated despite rate cuts, reinforcing the safe-haven role of precious metals and the government bonds of less-indebted countries.
Despite Hungary’s unfavorable economic structure, GDP could grow by 2% in 2026, according to Equilor’s analysis, supported by wage-driven domestic consumption and new manufacturing capacity.
Aradványi stressed that growth prospects remain overshadowed by weak external demand. Given limited fiscal room for maneuver, the government is primarily channeling resources into boosting consumption, meaning substantial investment incentives are unlikely unless access to EU funds improves. The budget deficit as a percentage of GDP could reach 5.2% this year and 4.6% in 2027.
Inflation is expected to remain within the MNB’s 2-4% tolerance band during the first three quarters of the year, averaging 3.5% annually, which could open the door for interest rate cuts by the national bank as early as the first quarter.
Despite favorable inflation prospects, Equilor expects the MNB to maintain a cautious approach, with three 25-basis-point rate cuts each in 2026 and 2027. This would result in a base rate of 5.75% by the end of 2026 and 5% by the end of next year.
Equilor also forecasts double-digit growth on major international stock exchanges in 2026. Equity analyst András Takács expects that geopolitical rivalry in the technology sector will primarily support AI and directly related industries. Rising trade tensions and a renewed focus on supply security may create opportunities in infrastructure, energy, and defense.
The U.S. stock market could also be driven by expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, easing inflation, and consumption-boosting government measures linked to the midterm elections, due on Nov. 3, 2026.
In the relatively undervalued European markets, shares exposed to increased infrastructure and defense investments may offer excess returns.
In line with international trends, Equilor expects Budapest’s BUX blue-chip stock market index, currently comprising 16 companies, to deliver returns exceeding 10% this year. Takács noted that Richter’s medium-term performance will be influenced by the results of the second phase of its Vraylar 2.0 antipsychotic medication.
MOL’s outlook could be positively affected by the acquisition of Serbian oil company Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS). The Hungarian oil and gas major announced on Jan. 19 that it had signed a binding heads-of-agreement with Gazprom Neft to acquire its 56.15% stake in NIS.
OTP’s consistently strong performance is supported by improving profitability and geographically diversified operations, although its Russian exposure remains a source of uncertainty, Equilor notes.
This article was first published in the Budapest Business Journal print issue of January 30, 2026.
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