The rental platform warns that landlords have little reason to celebrate, as the program is likely to suppress rent growth for years and significantly reduce the appeal of investment-driven apartment purchases based purely on market returns.

According to Rentingo’s analysis, the appreciation potential of used apartments in Budapest has declined sharply, making investment purchases increasingly unattractive unless they are tied to the state-backed Otthon Start scheme. As a result, the number of purely market-based buy-to-let investments is expected to fall markedly next year. Conditions are expected to remain particularly challenging for landlords seeking rents above HUF 250,000, while improving household incomes in the election year could help stabilize demand in lower price segments.

The Budapest rental market experienced an unusually volatile year in 2025, comparable only to the turbulence seen during the coronavirus pandemic. In the first half of the year, average rents hit a glass ceiling at around HUF 250,000, a level they were unable to break through. Early summer momentum was abruptly halted by the announcement of the Otthon Start program, with tenant willingness to pay dropping sharply in August and failing to fully recover since, Rentingo said.

By mid-fall, a rare market situation had emerged, with falling demand coinciding almost simultaneously with an expansion in supply. Demand for higher-priced apartments declined dramatically, triggering a downward adjustment in rents. This trend was reinforced in October by an increase in supply, as apartments purchased for investment purposes using subsidized loans with a 3% interest rate began to appear on the market.

After six consecutive months of decline, average asking rents in Budapest remained sustainably below HUF 250,000 by the end of 2025, while tenant demand prices stabilized at around HUF 220,000. In December, landlords asked an average of HUF 244,000 for rental apartments, while tenants were willing to pay about HUF 221,000, narrowing the gap between asking and demand prices to roughly 10%.

Otthon Start to Reshape Market in the Long Term

Rentingo expects the Otthon Start program to remain the single most important factor shaping the Budapest rental market in 2026. The program’s HUF 1.5 million per square meter price cap limits the appreciation potential of used apartments, reducing investment demand, while the availability of subsidized 3% loans gives landlords who purchase properties through the program a competitive edge in the rental market.

With limited prospects for price appreciation, rental yield is expected to come to the fore as the key consideration for investors. However, compressed rental levels mean that attractive returns are likely to be achievable only for those benefiting from Otthon Start financing. As a result, Rentingo foresees a lasting rent cap on the supply side, one that could weigh on landlords for years.

On the demand side, income improvements linked to the election year could help stabilize tenants’ purchasing power in 2026, particularly in lower price categories. Above the HUF 250,000 threshold, however, finding tenants is expected to remain difficult, especially for mid-range and higher-end apartments.

Looking further ahead, Rentingo cautions that landlords may face additional headwinds in 2027, when the completion of newly launched residential developments could bring a significant increase in supply, further pressuring rents in an already constrained market.