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The development bank revised its forecasts downward by one percentage point and 0.7 of a percentage point, respectively, compared to its previous report published in May.
According to the EBRD, GDP remained broadly stagnant in the first half of 2025, as gains in household consumption were offset by a weak performance in industry and agriculture, while low net exports continued to dampen overall growth. It added that trade tensions are weighing on the automobile and battery industries.
Growth is forecast to accelerate in 2026, supported by a gradual recovery in consumption and private investment. However, risks linked to s ubdued external demand, trade disruptions and “challenges in the relationship with the EU,” remain tilted to the downside.
The EBRD highlighted faster-than-expected capacity expansion in the auto and battery sectors as potential upside.
Public finances “remain strained,” the EBRD said, projecting that the budget deficit will remain above 4% of GDP in 2025.
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