The Council also left the O/N deposit rate at 5.5% and the O/N collateralised loan rate at 7.5%. The rates mark the ends of the central bank’s symmetric interest rate corridor.
In a statement released after the meeting, the council said the decision to leave the base rate on hold was taken in line with its “stability-oriented” approach.
“A careful and patient approach to monetary policy remains necessary due to risks to the inflation environment as well as trade policy and geopolitical tensions,” the council added.
Commenting on MNB’s latest quarterly Inflation Report, which was discussed at the meeting, the Council said CPI was expected to stay above the central bank’s 3% +/-1 pp tolerance band for the rest of 2025.
“In the medium term, with buoyant consumer demand, volatile commodity market movements and persistently strong wage dynamics, the inflation target can be achieved in a sustainable manner by ensuring tight monetary conditions,” the policymakers said.
They added that the inflation rate could “decline persistently” to the tolerance band in early 2026 and reach the 3% inflation target in early 2027. The Inflation Report puts average annual inflation at 4.7% for 2025 and 3.7% for 2026.
The central bank expects a gradual recovery in H2 2025 and puts full-year GDP growth at 0.8%.
It projects GDP growth of 2.8% in 2026.
The council said the baseline scenario in the report was surrounded by mostly upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.
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