Analysts told MTI that the acceleration of over 14% in Hungary’s 12-month industrial output growth in February was significantly higher than they expected.
The Central Statistics Office reported on Thursday morning that industrial output growth accelerated 14.3% according to both unadjusted and workday-adjusted figures in the twelve months to February. Output rose by a seasonally and workday-adjusted 0.9% from January.
Zoltán Árokszállási of Erste Bank and Gergely Suppán of Takarékbank both remarked that exports, particularly to Germany, are still driving industrial-output growth in Hungary.
Árokszállási noted that the publication of data on Wednesday showing that industrial orders rose 2.4% in Germany last month foreshadowed Hungary’s higher-than-expected February industrial output growth. He expects double-digit growth to continue in the next few months, but to slow thenafter, to give a single-digit average growth for the full year.
Gergely Suppán said Takarékbank analysts expected slightly less than 12% yr/yr growth for February. Suppán predicted that domestic demand should gradually begin to boost industrial output growth as well, noting that the start of production at the Daimler plant in Kecskemet (C Hungary) during the second quarter of 2012 will support growth next year.
The Takarékbank analyst commented that the earthquake-tsunami-nuclear catastrophe in Japan is likely to cause only minor kinks in the industrial delivery chain over the coming months
Citing the launch of recently completed investments and continued lively demand in Germany, Gergely Suppán predicted that 2011 industrial output growth could be 10% after 10.5% last year
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