Hungary’s Central Statistical Office will publish March inflation figures at 9am on April 12, Tuesday.
Petrol and diesel prices rose to record levels in recent weeks, but the high base will help control inflation, Janos Samu of Concorde said.
The steep increase in farm gate prices will also contribute to higher inflation, with food prices rising more than 10% in 2011 as a result, Daniel Bebesy of Budapest Fund Management added.
The February rise in electricity prices, reflected in March bills, could push inflation higher. Furthermore, it could create major uncertainty in the area of energy prices that the government has announced another price moratorium, which means that postponed price rises could become a burden on households at the same time later on, and the elimination of gas and district heating subsidies in the spring can also lift the price index, Bebesy noted.
On the other hand, March inflation will be helped by continued low price indices of services and consumer durable prices may fall in March or later as a result of the recent strengthening of the forint.
Looking ahead, the analysts said they expected inflation to stay between 4%-4.3% in the spring and fall below 4% in the summer due partly to high bases. A further rise in petrol prices, however, could carry a major risk, Janos Samu of Concorde pointed out.
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