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The agency notes that the government is maintaining generous pre‑election support measures, including tax cuts, wage increases, and a USD 157 million heating‑cost program, while the EU estimates that the revised utility‑price system cost 1% of GDP in 2024 and 0.5% in 2025.
Even though most of Hungary’s gas imports come from Russia, prices are linked to the European benchmark TTF gas price. They jumped to EUR 65.5 per megawatt‑hour at the start of the war, double the previous level, and although they have since fallen to around EUR 50, this remains 50% higher than February levels, though far below the EUR 300 peak of mid‑2022.
S&P will next review Hungary’s rating on May 29, after the April 12 parliamentary election, and warns that high pre‑election spending could strain fiscal space and complicate inflation control.
The agency also highlights structural risks, including low EU‑fund inflows, institutional weaknesses, and heavy energy dependence, while noting that an easing of geopolitical tensions, such as de‑escalation involving Iran, could reduce downgrade risks.
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