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A Short History of the Future of Shopping and Payments, drawing on Mastercard research and insights from four futurists working across the United States, Europe and Asia, examines how payments and everyday commerce could evolve by the end of the decade.
The report forecasts the growing use of AI agents capable of negotiating prices, alongside smartwatches and smart rings that could show consumers how products perform after purchase.
“Mastercard has been providing simple and secure payment solutions for 60 years, and that mission will continue during one of the greatest transformations in the history of shopping,” said Gergely Márkus, country manager at Mastercard.
“AI is increasingly helping people decide what to buy, and in the future, it will also complete the purchase on their behalf. Solutions such as Agent Pay make possible a future in which we entrust technology to conduct transactions in our name. The report calls on consumers and businesses to take small, practical steps today so that they can prepare for this future together,” he added.
The report was prepared in collaboration with four specialists in the future of AI and commerce: Magnus Lindkvist, Patrick Dixon, Katja Forbes and Theodora Lau.
It suggests that everyday purchases, including groceries, medicines and subscriptions, will be among the first tasks consumers delegate to AI agents.
“By 2030, shopping will no longer mean the same thing,” said Lindkvist, the report’s lead futurist. “AI agents will take care of routine purchases, while shopping will become something we do for discovery, inspiration and experience.”
The report’s forecasts are supported by Mastercard research covering 26,000 parents and teenagers aged 13-18 across 13 countries. The findings indicate that teenagers already use AI to support purchasing decisions around twice as often as their parents and are adopting AI-powered shopping tools more rapidly.
Some 62% of young respondents believe AI will significantly change how their generation shops in the future.
Around 27% of teenagers said they would probably use a fully AI-operated shopping assistant capable of recommending products, choosing between options and completing purchases according to rules set by the user. The corresponding share among parents was 16%.
Teenagers were also almost twice as likely as their parents to use AI weekly to find the best price or discount, at 18% compared with 10%.
Trust in the technology is also increasing. Almost one-third of teenagers, or 31%, said they would trust an AI-generated product recommendation more than advice from a friend, while 23% would choose AI advice over their parents’ opinion.
Meanwhile, 67% of parents expect AI-powered shopping to become a defining feature for their children’s generation, but only 5% believe it will play a similarly important role for their own.
Generational differences are also visible among parents. Those aged 18-34 were more likely to use AI for product research each week than respondents over 55, at 14% and 10%, respectively.
According to the report, retailers will increasingly need to serve both human consumers and AI agents capable of processing large quantities of data within seconds.
Such agents could assess company claims, examine customer reviews and other feedback, make purchasing decisions and complete transactions.
As a result, retailers may need to adapt their loyalty programs, customer relationships and digital platforms to the requirements of AI agents. Product information, corporate claims and policies will have to become machine-readable.
A sustainability claim, for example, would need to be supported by certification that an AI agent could locate, read and verify.
The report identifies trust as a decisive factor in the transition to agentic commerce.
“Every major transformation in commerce has involved a change in trust,” Lindkvist said. “From the marketplace and shopping mall to the catalog and one-click purchasing, every historical stage in the development of commerce has asked people to place their trust in something new.”
Agentic commerce could represent an even more profound shift, as consumers would no longer merely trust technology to help them obtain information and make decisions but would delegate the decision itself.
Futurist Theodora Lau said retailers and financial institutions would need clear regulatory and operational frameworks to establish that trust, particularly in the areas of identity, consent, authorization and liability.
She forecast that regulators in at least three G20 countries could issue formal guidance on registering and verifying AI agents by 2030.
Purchasing intent could also become as valuable as the payment itself, the report said. The authorization given to an AI agent to make a purchase on a consumer’s behalf could acquire commercial significance even before the transaction occurs.
Although the report looks ahead to 2030, early applications of agentic commerce are already emerging.
Earlier this year, Mastercard and its partners completed Europe’s first live, end-to-end agentic payment transaction, demonstrating how AI agents could securely support shopping and payments while maintaining safeguards for transparency, security and consumer control.
Mastercard has also completed Hungary’s first live, authenticated transaction conducted by an AI agent with the participation of OTP Bank.
The initiative has since expanded with the involvement of Gránit Bank, MBH Bank and K&H Bank, demonstrating that AI-powered commerce is gradually moving from a theoretical concept toward practical implementation.
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