Economists at global financial consultancy Capital Economics said on Monday that their GDP tracker model points towards growth of around 2.5% year-on-year in the final quarter of last year, up from 1.8% in the third quarter. Capital analysts reckon that the Hungarian economy has benefitted both from a recovery in the export-led industrial sector as well as strengthening domestic demand.
“The seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth figures are volatile […] But for what it’s worth, GDP growth of 2.5% year-on-year would be consistent with output rising by 0.4% over the quarter – a slowdown from the 0.9% recorded in the third quarter.”
More timely indicators such as Hungary’s economic sentiment indicator, published by the European Commission, suggest that the economy started this year on a strong note as well.
“Nonetheless, we remain concerned about how sustainable the recovery is and, as pre-election stimulus unwinds later this year, growth could start to slow again,” Capital Economics analysts said.
London-based emerging markets economists at JP Morgan, a global financial services group, said that seasonally adjusted GDP growth momentum “likely eased significantly” in the last quarter of 2013 to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter from the 0.9% print in the third quarter. However, growth probably continued to accelerate year-on-year to 2.3% from 1.8% on base effects, they added.
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