Earlier this week, Hungary’s Economy Minister Mihály Varga said he was expecting the country’s GDP growth rate to rise 0.5-0.6 percentage points over the 2.5% target for next year if oil prices remain low, with a probability of reaching 3%.
Yesterday, Hungarian online daily atv.hu reported that lower external demand and government expenditure may slow the economy to 2.5% in 2015.
Századvég puts average annual inflation at 1.6% next year, which is well above MNB’s estimate of 0.9%, and projects the general government deficit to reach 2.3% of GDP, slightly under the 2.4% target in the 2015 budget.
Századvég believes that the unemployment rate would drop to 7.1%, gross wages would climb 3.5%, with an export growth of 6.4% and import would increase 6.1%.
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