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The party nevertheless retains a substantial lead over Fidesz-KDNP, while the share of respondents without a party preference has increased and willingness to vote has declined.
Tisza’s support among the adult population slipped from 49% in August to 47% in September. Among respondents expressing a party preference, its backing declined from 58% to 57%, while support among decided voters certain to participate fell from 61% to 59%.
Europion said the monthly changes were within the margin of error. Compared with the May-June peak, however, Tisza has lost four to five percentage points across the three groups, equivalent to roughly one in 10 of its supporters.
The pollster cautioned that it was too early to describe the findings as evidence of a substantially tighter party contest, as neither Fidesz-KDNP nor Mi Hazánk had clearly capitalized on Tisza’s decline.
Fidesz-KDNP remained at 21% among all adults, unchanged from August. Its support among respondents with a party preference rose from 25% to 26%, while its share among decided voters certain to participate increased from 25% to 27%.
Mi Hazánk’s figures were unchanged across all three groups: 10% among adults, 12% among those expressing a party preference and 10% among decided voters certain to participate.
The proportion of respondents unable or unwilling to name a preferred party increased from 15% to 18%.
Meanwhile, the share saying they would definitely vote in a parliamentary election held the following Sunday dropped from 74% to 69%. Participation intentions were particularly weak among respondents under 30, just 53% of whom said they would certainly vote.
Despite its overall decline, Tisza retained majority support among several demographic groups. It stood at 56% in Budapest, 51% in cities with county rights, 52% among adults under 40 and 62% among university graduates.
Dávid Vitézy retained first place in Europion’s political popularity rankings, with 52% of respondents saying they would somewhat or very much welcome him in an important public role.
That put him three percentage points ahead of Péter Magyar, at 49%, and seven points ahead of Ágnes Forsthoffer, at 45%. István Kapitány and Anita Orbán both recorded 43%, followed by Bálint Ruff at 38%.
Former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s rating increased from 28% in August to 31%, placing him level with László Toroczkai. However, he remained the most strongly rejected politician in the survey: 47% gave him the lowest possible rating on the five-point scale, indicating that they did not want to see him in an important public role.
Fidesz parliamentary group leader János Bóka received a positive rating from 18%.
Recognition was limited for both Tisza parliamentary group leader Andrea Bujdosó and President András Baka. Around half of respondents could express an opinion about Bujdosó, with 27% welcoming her in an important role and 23% rejecting her. For Baka, 53% expressed an opinion, with positive assessments at 30% and negative assessments at 23%.
Europion also asked respondents to assess nine developments during the Tisza government’s first 100-plus days, measuring both satisfaction and the attention paid to each issue.
The government’s shift in EU policy and handling of EU funding received the highest satisfaction rating, at 52%, followed by its management of the summer energy crisis at 50%.
The process surrounding the 17th constitutional amendment ranked third at 48%, although it also attracted relatively high disapproval, at 31%.
Lower satisfaction ratings were recorded for investigations and reviews of the previous government’s affairs, at 42%; the establishment of the NVVH and selection of its leader, at 41%; and the process of choosing the new president, at 39%.
Among respondents who voted for Tisza in April, however, only 14% expressed a specifically negative opinion of the NVVH process, while 11% negatively assessed the presidential selection process.
The summer energy crisis attracted the closest attention, with 61% saying they followed it closely. Government formation in May and the constitutional amendment followed, both at 54%.
The Aug. 20 fireworks attracted the least attention, at 44%, while the presidential selection process and public media restructuring were each closely followed by 49%.
Europion surveyed 2,100 respondents from its mobile and web application panel on Sept. 7-8.
The pollster used multilevel regression and poststratification, known as MRP, to adjust for demographic imbalances and the underrepresentation of people with lower digital engagement. The adjustments also incorporated respondents’ recollection of their April election vote and their digital proficiency.
Europion said bootstrap testing indicated a maximum margin of error of 2.2 percentage points for estimated party support among the full adult population.
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