June trade surplus falls short of forecast - analysts

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Hungary's June trade surplus was less than expected, but global market trends augured the big slowdown in export and import growth, analysts said on Tuesday.

Hungary had a €615 million trade surplus in June, up 8.1% from the same month a year earlier, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) said in the morning.

Exports climbed 3.1% to €6.542 billion during the period. Imports increased 2.6% to €5.927 billion. The year-on-year increases of exports and imports were down sharply from 19.4% and 14.6%, respectively, in May.

Zoltán Árokszállási of Erste Bank said the June surplus was slightly under the estimated €659 million. The full-year surplus could be under the earlier projected €6-7 billion, he added.

Árokszállási said the fall in imports was closely tied to the drop in exports, because of the import content of exports.

ING Bank's Dávid Németh said the June surplus was under his €650 million projection. The difference between export and import growth shows domestic demand has still not started to pick up, he added.

Hungary's full-year trade surplus is likely to reach the equivalent of 6-6.5% of GDP for the full year, Németh said.

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