Hungary could regain investment grade in 2015

Ratings

Hungary “seems to have a good chance” of being upgraded back to investment grade by credit rating agencies next year, comparing its current situation with the point at which it lost its investment grade status, London-based emerging markets economists said on Tuesday, as reported by Budapest news agency MTI.

In a report on sovereign credits on the boundary of investment grade and high yield ratings, released to investors in London, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research said they believe increased expectations for growth and the fiscal anchor of the EU Commission's monitoring, create conditions for a return to investment grade by next year.

The public and private sector balance sheet adjustments in effect since 2008 also reveal increasingly positive effects for GDP growth. However, any upgrade is unlikely to materialize before next summer, as the agencies will want to wait for the completion of the FX loan dispute and the release of all the data for the 2014 public debt results and 2015 deficit implementation.

“We expect the rating reviews to remain neutral until then,” analysts at BofA-Merrill Lynch's London-based research unit said. In the case of Hungary, four out of five metrics that have proven to be particularly strong empirical factors explaining emerging markets' ratings history are better today than at the time of the downgrade, they added.

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