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Voter poll: More support for right, E14 on bubble

Party Popularity

Hungary’s left-wing opposition parties don’t need bad news going into this weekend’s re-running of a Baja by-election, but think tank Századvég is bringing it anyway. To wit: a September poll shows the Fidesz-KDNP coalition strengthening among likely voters, while the Together 2014-Dialogue for Hungary (E14-PM) party is in danger of falling below the 5% treshold for parliamentary representation. 

Perhaps the best news for all parties is the Századvég Institute’s finding that some 51% now plan to participate in the 2014 national elections, up from the 49% mark seen in last month’s poll from the group – but for the larger lefty contenders, it’s downhill from there. Fidesz-KDNP, Jobbik and former prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsány’s Democratic Coalition (DK) parties each saw gains of about 1% among those polled; party support among all voters came in at 28%, 8% and 2%, respectively.

Little changes in the numbers for MSzP (which polled 13% in the September poll), E14-PM (4%) and LMP (2%). As for the poll’s results among decided voters, Fidesz-KDNP enjoyed a majority at 51%, up from August’s 50%. Following the coalition government party were MSzP with no gain or loss at 23%; Jobbik, with a 1% gain to 14%; E14-PM, up 2% to 6%; DK at 3%; and LMP at 2%.

Such results would leave the currently unallied latter two parties out of parliament altogether, whereas a breakup of the left-wing alliance between MSzP and E14-PM would put Gordon Bajnai’s party on the bubble as well.

Though hope is hardly lost – after all, Századvég shows that some 42% of voters remain undecided – that Baja by-election seems disproportionately important, at least insofar as the left is concerned, doesn’t it?

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