Unemployment likely to rise after seasonal effect wears off

MNB

Analysts attributed a lower than expected jobless rate in June-August to seasonal factors and warned that unemployment was likely to rise in the coming months.

The average unemployment rate in Hungary was 10.4% in the 15-74 age group in June-August, down from 10.5% in May-July and from 10.8% in the same period a year earlier, data published by the Central Statistics Office (KSH) on Friday show.

CIB chief analyst Mariann Trippon said the unemployment rate dropped because of seasonal effects during the summer months. As the economy is in recession, the rate is likely to remain in the double digits and rise close to 11% by year-end, she added.

Takarékbank senior analyst Gergely Suppan said the data was a positive surprise, but noted that much of the increase in employment was due to fostered workers.

He said the unemployment rate could fall to 10.3% in the autumn before rising again to reach 11.4% by year-end. He put the annual average jobless rate at 10.9%.

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