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Polish house prices to fall 15-20% - cbank analyst

  Polish real estate prices will fall by 15-20% and will not begin rising again until 2012 because of a glut of unsold homes and problems with bank financing, an analyst at the central bank was quoted as saying.

“Theoretically there is room for an even bigger price fall,” Polish central bank’s real estate analyst Jacek Laszek was quoted as saying by the state news agency PAP. “But we think that developers will act rationally and that a majority (have) diversified production and have the means to survive the slump,” he added.

Supply of new homes will shrink for the next 3-4 years and may even lead to few new apartments being sold by around 2012, which should allow prices to rise again, he said. In a Reuters poll in November analysts expected home prices to fall by an average of 12% in 2009 before recovering in 2010.

Since then economists have lowered estimates for economic growth in Poland and many banks have tightened their credit procedures and dropped once popular but increasingly expensive mortgages in Swiss francs. (Reuters)