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Analysts say that OTP Bank's recent rally likely to end

Analysts believe that OTP Bank's recent rally, which has lifted the bank's share value 28.94% to HUF 4,700 over the past eleven BSE trade sessions ending on Wednesday, is likely to soon come to an end, business daily Világgazdaság reported.

Raiffeisen Bank analyst Ákos Herczenik said that the recent jump in OTP Bank's share value stemmed from portfolio restructuring among institutional investors, not expectations regarding the bank's second-quarter earnings report due on Friday.

Herczenik remarked that OTP Bank, as an eastern European financial-sector company, had been underweighted in the portfolios of major investors.

The Raiffeisen Bank analyst predicted that OTP Bank's second-quarter report would show net profit of HUF 41 billion-HUF 42 billion (€150.84 million-€154.52 million) and a significant rise in risk provisions to above HUF 60 billion.

Herczenik commented that OTP Bank's share value could fall back below HUF 4,000 over the coming months.

CIB Bank analyst Péter Dobar predicted that OTP Bank's second-quarter report would show net profit of HUF 38 billion-HUF 41 billion and risk provisions of HUF 55.4 billion. Dobar added that investors would react negatively to second-quarter after-tax profit of under HUF 35 billion and positively to Q2 after-tax profit of above HUF 43 billion.

The CIB Bank analyst remarked that even a minimally better-than-expected second-quarter report could trigger profit-taking on OTP Bank's significant recent gains.

Concorde Securities lead analyst Attila Vágó said that OTP Bank shares have already reached their expected year-end value of HUF 4,301 and would thus likely begin to decline.

Vágó predicted that OTP Bank's second-quarter report would show profit of HUF 40.5 billion.

OTP Bank posted after-tax profit of HUF 41.8 billion in first quarter of 2009, compared to HUF 55.3 billion in Q1 of 2008. (MTI-Econews)