Hungary's GDP growth will be at around 2.7% in 2011 and 3.1% in 2012, and there could be a major general budget surplus this year, but the deficit will exceed the EU threshold in 2012, according to a forecast of the OECD published on Wednesday, Dow Jones reported.
This year's 2.6% surplus is expected to result from the special sector taxes and the restructuring of the pension system. Next year, the general government budget is expected to have a deficit of 3.3%, exceeding the 3% limit of the European Union.
The GDP will grow 2.7% this year and 3.1% in 2012, the forecast said, which adds that the economy is mainly driven by exports, but domestic consumption will start to expand gradually.
The forecast of OECD is different to the government's predictions, which envisage a surplus of 2.0% for 2011, and a deficit of 2.5% in 2012, falling to a deficit of 1.5% by 2015 in its latest convergence program published in April.
The government sees economic growth of 3.1% this year and 3.0% in 2012 according to its conservative estimate and 3.2% this year and 3.6% next year according to its estimate.
The European Commission, in its European Economic Forecast Spring 2011, predicted Hungary's GDP growth this year at 2.7% and 2.6% next year. It expects a general government surplus of 1.6% this year and a 3.3% in 2012.