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October industrial output data better than expected - analysts

A 3.0% increase in Hungary’s industrial output in October from the same period a year earlier was bigger than expected, analysts told MTI on Wednesday, after the Central Statistics Office (KSH) published the fresh data.

In a month-on-month comparison, industrial output dropped 0.9% in October after climbing 3.9% in September.

Chief analyst for MKB Bank Zsolt Kondrat said the fresh data was better than expected. The month-on-month drop was likely a correction after the big increase in the previous month, he added.

The picture remains the same: output is down from the first half of the year because of the downturn on Hungary’s export markets, but things are not "falling apart", he said.

Mr Kondrat put the full-year increase in industrial output at 5.5-6% in 2011 and 4.5-5% in 2012.

Gergely Suppan of TakarekBank also said the twelve-month data beat expectations, but the month-on-month decline came as no surprise because of the fall in external demand and declining domestic indicators. He expected no change or a slight drop in November and a big rise, boosted by base effects, in December.

Mr Suppan put the increase in industrial output for the full year at 5.5-6% in both 2011 and 2012.

Raiffeisen Bank’s Zoltan Torok said the year-on-year rise in industrial output was over the 2-2.5% estimate. Growth was helped by the ignition of Germany’s "industrial engine", he added.

Industrial output in Germany - Hungary’s biggest trading partner - is likely to fall in the first third of next year which will weigh on Hungary’s industrial output, he said.