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No second wave of global crisis - economist

  A leading French economist said on Thursday he did not see a second wave of global financial crisis and the current corporate bankruptcies could finish by the end of this year.

In an interview with Xinhua in Brussels, Yves Zlotowski, chief economist of the French Coface Group, said “We do not believe, and we hope there will not be a second round of financial crisis.”

Coface, headquartered in Paris, provides a full range of trade-risk management solutions to over 100,000 companies ranging all sizes and industries, in 93 countries.

However, the economist stressed that 2009 will be a “difficult year” for real economy and there will be more bankruptcies, particularly in Japan, Europe and the United States, where the economic recessions have take place.

Stephen Roach, chairman of the Hong Kong-based Morgan Stanley Asia, said that the world is moving into the second wave of the financial crisis, which will be symbolized more by the deterioration in the global business cycle than the financial market itself.

Zlotowski, who attended a seminar sponsored by the Belgian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, appeared to be more optimistic. “To be more optimistic, I think ... in terms of corporate bankruptcies, it will finish by the end of the year, because in the end it will not last forever, it will always hang somewhere ... Bad corporate disappear, and good corporals survive,” he said.

The economist believes the world will begin to recover in 2010. “At the end of 2009 ... it will be over, and it will be established in 2010,” Zlotowski said.

Speaking of China at the seminar, he expressed his confidence about the country’s economy, saying that he is very surprised and encouraged by what happened in the country. “The Chinese authorities reacted very quickly (in dealing with the financial crisis) ... they have means to intervene to soften the crisis impact.”

He forecast that China’s economy will grow above 6% in 2009 despite recessions in the industrialized countries, adding that the macro economic situation is “very strong” and the financial situation is stable.

The Chinese government have taken a series of measures against the financial crisis and vowed to meet the target of an 8% growth in the year of 2009.

The situation in eastern Europe and Russia is very risky, the economist said. “We have been very worried by the situation” since these countries have a lot of foreign currency debts, credit crunch as well as a lot of bankruptcies, he said. (Xinhua)