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Ministry could revise 2009 budget based on oil price of $32 per barrel – sources

The Russian Finance Ministry could revise the parameters of federal budget revenue in 2009 based on an average oil price of $32 per barrel and an average exchange rate of RUB 34/$1, sources close to the ministry told Interfax.

One of the sources said that, under such a scenario, budget revenues could be more than half of the RUB 10.9 trillion (about $34.42 billion) currently planned in 2009. The source also said the 2010 budget could be revised based on an average price of $44 per barrel and an exchange rate of RUB 43/$1, while the 2011 budget could be recalculated based on oil prices of $54 per barrel and an exchange rate of RUB 48/$1.

These forecasts are part of the ministry’s latest working forecast, but they have not been finalized, the source said. “The figures are constantly changing,” the source said. Another source said the aforementioned figures are based on a pessimistic forecast for the country’s socioeconomic development that was drawn up by the Economic Development Ministry.

The federal budget for 2009 is currently based on an average oil price of $95 per barrel and an exchange rate of RUB 25.4/$1, the 2010 budget on forecasts of $90 per barrel and RUB 26.6/$1 and the 2011 budget on $88 per barrel and RUB 28/$1. (Interfax)