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JP Morgan: The hope is East

Amidst the global credit market crisis, now it is the emerging region that can be relied on as the source of stability and the way of “escaping toward quality”.

The emerging countries still have the impetus they gained through a persistent growth of their economies, writes the analysis by the London-based section of leading financial services firm JP Morgan, which was posted on Thursday. As a whole, the region will produce an economic growth of over 5% this year even if the US has to face recession, which, according to JP Morgan, has a 45% chance. Though China’s economy is still of a crucial significance, JP Morgan expects that the possible recession would make the growth in China slow down only to 9% – 9.5% in 2008 from 11.4% last year. For Hungary the company forecasts a 1.5% GDP-growth with the US facing recession, as against the otherwise expected 2.3%. The figures with or without recession for Poland are 5.0% vs. 5.3%, for the Czech Republic 5.0% vs. 5.5% and for Slovakia 6.5% vs. 7.0%. JP Morgan expects Poland to join the Euro zone in 2012, the Czech Republic and Hungary in 2013. It was the first time that any of the London-based analysts has mentioned 2013 as the possible date of Euro adoption in Hungary. The current London-consensus is 2014. (Gazdasági Rádió)